Dan Solin is a graduate of John Hopkins University and the University of Pennsylvania Law School.
He has written a wonderful book The Smartest Investment Book You’ll Ever Read and is a financial columnist with The Huffington Post
Enclosed is a link to his write-up titled Time for a Reality Check dated 26th October 2010.
The important lesson is that ‘predictions and forecasts’ in financial markets are very difficult-even for professionals. Active investing involves all kinds of future predictions and forecasts-great stocks, managers, time to be in and out of the market and so on.
Dan Solin is a strong advocate of passive indexing!
The futility about some of these forecasts reminds me of terrific stuff that I had read in the book Black Swan
“What is surprising is not the magnitude of our forecast errors, but our absence of awareness of it.”
And
“Thomas Watson, the founder of IBM, once predicted that there would be no need for more than just a handful of computers.”
No comments:
Post a Comment