Meredith Whitney-the banking analyst who had shot to fame for correctly predicting Citigroup’s dividend cut...is now struggling to make the right stock picks.
She received many accolades (in hindsight)-but unfortunately ‘past performance’ seems to be faltering.
Read the following link to a story titled Whitney Falters in Trying to Repeat Success of Citigroup Call.
As a firm believer of passive indexing-I see Meredith Whitney as an example (from a long list) of individual active stock pickers / managers who enjoy transient success in beating the market.
Such examples are lessons that repeatedly confirm academic studies (done in indexing) which tell us that it is difficult to consistently outperform, outpace and outguess the market.
Many similar examples exist in all stock markets around the world.
I am reminded of the following words of William Bernstein and John Bogle,
William Bernstein (author of The Intelligent Asset Allocator) stated: "It turns out for all practical purposes there is no such thing as stock picking skill. It's human nature to find patterns where there are none and to find skill where luck is a more likely explanation..." John Bogle (founder and former CEO of indexing giant Vanguard): I have taken these words from his speech The Stock Market Universe-Stars, Comets and the Sun dated February 15th 2001 before the Financial Analysts of Philadelphia,
Yes, there have been some star investors, but they are precious few, and I take my hat off to them. But no, there is no way to be certain how long today’s stars will remain in that celestial realm. Nor have I ever seen any methodology by which tomorrow’s stars can be identified in advance. But beyond serious refutation is the evidence that the overwhelming majority of yesterday’s stars are destined to be tomorrow’s comets.
The wise words of William Bernstein and John Bogle are valid for all competitive and hence ‘efficient’ stock markets around the world!
Ironically, it is the presence of many brilliant analysts, investors and managers that makes the market competitive and this leads to random outcomes (i.e. winning and losing performances) of individual active investors, analysts, stock pickers, market timers and managers.
I will explain market efficiency using simple analogies in future posts.
Logic tells us that it is rather futile to ‘guess’ (forecast, predict and pick) future ‘stars’ (i.e. individual stocks, managers or time the markets) because it is not only difficult to foretell future ‘stars’ in advance-it is equally difficult to predict the turning points when ‘stars’ will turn into ‘comets’ or ‘black holes.’
We have read the discoveries in astrophysics and astronomy-when a ‘star’ collapses in the heavens it turns into a ‘black hole’-the gravitational forces are so huge that the ‘black hole’ begins to suck all matter around it-even light cannot penetrate through-hence the name ‘black hole.’
The ‘heavenly’ drama also occurs on Earth in the markets when a ‘star’ (individual stock or manager or analyst) collapses-investors get sucked into the proverbial ‘black hole.’
It is more logical to invest in the market (universe) itself-i.e. the index! Mr Market contains more knowledge, information and insights than any ‘star’!
Sameer, we still have many more believers in the philosopher's stone that can turn any metal into Gold. May God bless all the believers in the ability of the stars, that allows us to take the money off the table - without working hard.
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